Watch 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Bitcoin's price run live over a one-year, 50% LTV loan. See the margin-call zone, the liquidation zone, and how a fixed-term, no-margin-call loan compares.
−½σ²·dt. The mean price stays at $100k, but the median drifts down by ~½σ² per year — roughly −8% at σ=40%, −12% at σ=50%. This is "volatility drag." Toggle drift above to see how it changes the picture. Both structures use an identical 50% initial LTV. The margin-call loan liquidates the first time BTC touches the 85% LTV level intraday; the no-margin-call loan only liquidates at maturity if BTC closes below the collateral floor.
| Metric | Margin-call loan | No-margin-call loan |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger / liquidation price | — | — |
| Probability of liquidation | — | — |
| Min BTC decline to liquidate | — | — |
| Path-dependent? | Yes — triggered intraday | No — evaluated only at maturity |
| Cash reserve required | Yes — ~⅔ of proceeds at risk | None |
Cadena Bitcoin offers fixed-term, no-margin-call financing against your Bitcoin. Keep your upside. Skip the 3am liquidation emails.
Monte Carlo simulation uses geometric Brownian motion with zero drift, daily steps, 10,000 paths, seed 42, and an annualized volatility you select. Bitcoin price is fetched live; if unavailable, a fallback value is used. Results are illustrative and depend on the volatility assumption chosen; past or implied volatility is not a guarantee of future price behavior. This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
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